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A statistics-based way to win TOTO?

Updated: Mar 20, 2023

This headline came across my newsfeed and naturally I gravitate towards it (stats and money, what’s there not to like?)

Unfortunately the “stats” in the article was nothing more than tabulating the number of times an outlet has produced the winning ticket and listing the top ten outlets.

A huge fallacy inside there, so am just going to debunk:

The “lucky” outlet appears to be lucky simply because more punters are lured by its reputation to purchase tickets there.

With significantly more tickets sold there it thus has a higher chance of producing the winning tickets.

What is a more meaningful stat is computing the percentage of winning tickets produced out of the total number of tickets sold (of course some synthesis is required due to system 6, 7 etc). However, the numbers revealed here will probably cause some punters to flip, to the point of refusing to bet anymore.

If you wish to punt, please punt within your limits and think about things you could have actually spent the money on!

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